Monthly Archives: May 2014

UPA-2 Govt didn’t fell on May 16 2014, it fell on August 16 2011

Everyone predicted a rout for the Congress, but no one predicted the extent of the rout. A below 100 tally was on cards, but a tally below 50 was completely unexpected. Congress didn’t even won a single seat in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu, Odhissa, Delhi and Goa. In Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, it won just 2 seats and just one in Chhattisgarh. Its highest seats came from Karnataka and Kerala, which too were in single figures. Not just the Congress, all parties that showed inclination towards the Congress fell hard. The NCP won just 4 seats in Maharashtra and two elsewhere, Left parties were reduced to minor players in Bengal and Kerala, DMK failed to win a single seat, YSR Cong did worst than many anticipated, RJD won just four seats and JDU just 2, BSP and NC drew a blank where as SP won just 5 seats. Every party that showed inclination towards Congress failed to win the trust of the electorate. Where as, parties which showed inclination to support a BJP led NDA won big. AIADMK won 37 seats in Tamil Nadi, BJD won 20 seats in Odhissa and TMC won 34 seats in West Bengal. This showes that people were not only disillusioned by the Congress, but all Congress minded parties that did the politics of Secularism-Communalism

The foundation of such anger was laid by the Anna Hazare led anti-corruption movement in 2011. Scams after scams were coming in the public domain and the government was in denial mode. The opposition was weak and Congress took the scams lightly. But the people didn’t. The Anna Hazzare movement gave people a platform to express their anger. People took leave from their jobs, sacrificed time which they would have spent with family, to protest against corruption. The Congress and other like minded parties took this for granted as the next election was more than three years away. What they didn’t understand was that this movement would be the foundation of their rout. The moment Congress arrested Anna Hazare, people decided to end the Congress government. Every hour Anna Hazare fasted, more and more people started changing their alligience. Every remark Congress made against the movement, opposed the people against the Congress. Congress thought corruption would have affect only the Urban population, but all its calculations were flawed. The base was created and Modi built his victory on this base. People had decided long ago to oust the Congress and Congress – minded parties long before the election was declared, only pressing the button on the E.V.M was left. And once this formality was done, the Congress and the Congress minded parties were swept away from the political landscape of India.

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Is Narendra Modi knocking on the door of 7 RCR?

After a lengthy election process, the future of the country is sealed and the Exit Polls are out. I write this blog after all the Exit Polls are out. The exit polls are unanimous on the issue of NDA forming the next government. Some exit polls are predicting an outright majority for the NDA where as others predict that NDA is shouting distance away from majority. Exit polls have been incorrect in the past, but have most of the time hinted at the way the country is thinking. The ground reports too speak of a possible Congress rout and BJP surging past its highest tally. Even if NDA does not reach 272, it is spoilt for choice as numerous parties like AIADMK, BJD, YSR Congress, TRS, et cetera would be ready for giving outside support to NDA. So if BJP gets 190+, we can safely consider that the next govt. would be a Modi Sarkar.

Now the question is how will the results affect the Congress Party? We can safely assume that the Congress Party is no where near winning this election. Congress will decide its future course according to the tally it gets. If Congress gets 115+ M.P.’s, it will try to form a government with the help of regional parties but if its tally is 100-, as predicted by various exit polls, then the Congress would prefer to sit in the opposition benches nor would it be able to form any government with such a low tally. If Congress sits in the opposition benches, the next important thing for Congress, to make a comeback would be the Assembly Elections in Maharashtra and Haryana which would be held later in the year. But one thing is sure, the blame of defeat would be put on Manmohan Singh by the Congress leaders.

If NDA forms a stable government at the centre, the role of the regional parties would be limited in the Lok Sabha. But regional parties would still be important if BJP decides to act on its core issues of article 370 and Uniform Civil Code. The RSS would too have an important role in the government.

It would be interesting to watch who will be the third largest party in the Lok Sabha- TMC , AIADMK or Left?