Tag Archives: Karnataka

UPA-2 Govt didn’t fell on May 16 2014, it fell on August 16 2011

Everyone predicted a rout for the Congress, but no one predicted the extent of the rout. A below 100 tally was on cards, but a tally below 50 was completely unexpected. Congress didn’t even won a single seat in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu, Odhissa, Delhi and Goa. In Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, it won just 2 seats and just one in Chhattisgarh. Its highest seats came from Karnataka and Kerala, which too were in single figures. Not just the Congress, all parties that showed inclination towards the Congress fell hard. The NCP won just 4 seats in Maharashtra and two elsewhere, Left parties were reduced to minor players in Bengal and Kerala, DMK failed to win a single seat, YSR Cong did worst than many anticipated, RJD won just four seats and JDU just 2, BSP and NC drew a blank where as SP won just 5 seats. Every party that showed inclination towards Congress failed to win the trust of the electorate. Where as, parties which showed inclination to support a BJP led NDA won big. AIADMK won 37 seats in Tamil Nadi, BJD won 20 seats in Odhissa and TMC won 34 seats in West Bengal. This showes that people were not only disillusioned by the Congress, but all Congress minded parties that did the politics of Secularism-Communalism

The foundation of such anger was laid by the Anna Hazare led anti-corruption movement in 2011. Scams after scams were coming in the public domain and the government was in denial mode. The opposition was weak and Congress took the scams lightly. But the people didn’t. The Anna Hazzare movement gave people a platform to express their anger. People took leave from their jobs, sacrificed time which they would have spent with family, to protest against corruption. The Congress and other like minded parties took this for granted as the next election was more than three years away. What they didn’t understand was that this movement would be the foundation of their rout. The moment Congress arrested Anna Hazare, people decided to end the Congress government. Every hour Anna Hazare fasted, more and more people started changing their alligience. Every remark Congress made against the movement, opposed the people against the Congress. Congress thought corruption would have affect only the Urban population, but all its calculations were flawed. The base was created and Modi built his victory on this base. People had decided long ago to oust the Congress and Congress – minded parties long before the election was declared, only pressing the button on the E.V.M was left. And once this formality was done, the Congress and the Congress minded parties were swept away from the political landscape of India.

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Only states where Congress can hope to win substantially

The first few rounds of voting has finished and voters in more than 100 constituencies have expressed their loyalties in the EVMs. In areas which were polarized and the areas which were in news for the wrong reasons, the voting percentage was quite high. The next big round of voting is going to happen soon and different parties are going to look at this phase with different expectations.

For the Congress, it is all about limiting the damage and retaining some respect. The Congress Party is hoping to win 114+ seats to maintain its credibility. But many in the Congress Party too would not believe that Congress could touch the figure of 115. The Congress is in free fall in most of the states and the only states where Congress has the chance to win a substantial tally are Kerala, Telangana, Karnataka, Maharashtra and Assam and Punjab.

In Kerala, the Opinion Polls suggest that Congress has the edge but the Left is not too far behind. The Left front’s campaign has picked momentum and many believe it may have equalled the Congress, or have gone ahead. But the state has already voted and 16th May will tell the final result.

In Telangana, Congress has an electoral plank to fight election on. It will portray the state as a gift from Sonia Gandhi and will try to gain on the emotional pitch of Telangana. But, with the TRS disagreeing to have an alliance with Congress, Congress may not be able to clean sweep the state. The BJP – TDP alliance too would be in a good position in Telangana and could win a couple of seats.

Karnataka is a tricky issue for seat predictions. In the recent Assembly Elections, the Congress won impressively and the BJP was wounded fiercely. This state has a history of voting against the wave in the rest of the Country. After winning the Assembly elections, the Congress would have planned to win 20 plus seats in Karnataka. But BJP played smart and today is in a position to win more seats than Congress. With the reinductment of Lingayat strongman, B S Yeddyurappa, the BJP has gained in the state and with the Modi wave, the BJP is expected to be in double figures. But the Congress can still expect to win a respected tally.

In Maharashtra, the NCP-Cong alliance is in sharp decline and the NDA can win majority of the seats in Maharashtra. With Raju Shetty joining the NDA and MNS not fielding candidates against BJP, the UPA’s tally would certainly fall. But the fall is considered to be steeper with the NCP than the Congress. The Congress hopes to win due to MNS cutting in the BJP-SS Yuti vote and if it wins 10 seats, it would consider it has done a very good job.

In Assam the Congress is in a good position due to popularity of its CM Tarun Gogoi and due to absence of unity in the opposition. The failure of BJP to have an alliance with AGP will benefit the Congress, but BJP has gained ground in Assam and has a good chance of retaining and expanding its earlier tally of 4 Seats. Still, the Congress, for a change, would be in poll position in Assam.

Punjan is in a similar state as it was before the 2012 Assembly elections. No one can predict whether BJP-Akali Dal will win more seats or Congress. Opinion polls are also divided on this issue. But with senior leaders in the fray, Punjab Congress cadre has shown enthusiasm and the fight in this state is too close and can tilt either way.

In rest of the states, Congress is looking at a rout and may lose its dominance in terms of seats won.
Mission 114 plus would be tough for Congress and it would not surprise many if Congress wins less than 100 seats.