Tag Archives: Narendra Modi

Is Narendra Modi knocking on the door of 7 RCR?

After a lengthy election process, the future of the country is sealed and the Exit Polls are out. I write this blog after all the Exit Polls are out. The exit polls are unanimous on the issue of NDA forming the next government. Some exit polls are predicting an outright majority for the NDA where as others predict that NDA is shouting distance away from majority. Exit polls have been incorrect in the past, but have most of the time hinted at the way the country is thinking. The ground reports too speak of a possible Congress rout and BJP surging past its highest tally. Even if NDA does not reach 272, it is spoilt for choice as numerous parties like AIADMK, BJD, YSR Congress, TRS, et cetera would be ready for giving outside support to NDA. So if BJP gets 190+, we can safely consider that the next govt. would be a Modi Sarkar.

Now the question is how will the results affect the Congress Party? We can safely assume that the Congress Party is no where near winning this election. Congress will decide its future course according to the tally it gets. If Congress gets 115+ M.P.’s, it will try to form a government with the help of regional parties but if its tally is 100-, as predicted by various exit polls, then the Congress would prefer to sit in the opposition benches nor would it be able to form any government with such a low tally. If Congress sits in the opposition benches, the next important thing for Congress, to make a comeback would be the Assembly Elections in Maharashtra and Haryana which would be held later in the year. But one thing is sure, the blame of defeat would be put on Manmohan Singh by the Congress leaders.

If NDA forms a stable government at the centre, the role of the regional parties would be limited in the Lok Sabha. But regional parties would still be important if BJP decides to act on its core issues of article 370 and Uniform Civil Code. The RSS would too have an important role in the government.

It would be interesting to watch who will be the third largest party in the Lok Sabha- TMC , AIADMK or Left?

Arvind Kejriwal fighting against Narendra Modi would actually help Narendra Modi

Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) has already declared its Prime Ministerial Candidate – Narendra Modi’s candidature from Varanasi seat of Uttar Pradesh. This has created much buzz among the political class of Lucknow as well of New Delhi. BJP is traditionally powerful in Varanasi and with the political momentum, Narendra Modi has gained in UP, it will take a miracle to defeat Modi in Varanasi. Arvind Kejriwal seems to rise up to the task of challenging Modi in Varanasi, considered by many as a political suicide.

I believe Arvind Kejriwal’s posturing against Modi in Varanasi, will help BJP in UP and ultimately all over the country.

Arvind Kejriwal is attracting anti-traditional parties vote. BJP is fine with Kejriwal attracting Anti-BJP vote as it will spilt the anti-BJP vote among various parties, but the damage that Kejriwal is causing to BJP is the anti-congress electorate that is shifting towards him. This electorate is disillusioned with the Congress party and would have gone with the BJP in the absence of Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The division of anti-congress vote harms the prospects of BJP.

But there is a different angle to the scenario that would unveil if Kejriwal fights against Modi.

If Kejriwal fights against Modi and is successfully able to position himself as Modi’s main challenger, he will attract the anti-Modi vote, mainly Muslim votes from UP. This will help BJP to strengthen its position in UP.

The Upper Castes (Brahmins, Kayasths, et cetera) are strongly consolidating around Modi, the Dalits and other Lower Castes, who traditionally support Mayawati’s BSP, are increasingly being attracted towards Modi due to his Lower Caste status. The middle class has always been a supporter of Modi. The Muzzafarnagar Riots have led the Jat community towards Modi. How Yadav voters will play, is still a mystery. Its only the Muslim voters that are still largely opposed to Modi.
Here Kejriwal comes into play. The Muslims in UP have a history of tactical voting. They support the candidate that has the highest possibility of defeating BJP. Muslims are disillusioned with SP due to the recent riots, with Congress, due to its 10 year dismal rule of the country and are considered to rally around the BSP. But Muslims know that Mayavati could ally with BJP after elections and cannot be trusted. Here a party named AAP comes, with its leader having relatively more credibility than the others, and is vocal about his anti-Modi thoughts and offering an actual future to Muslims, not the fear tactics that other parties adopt to gain Muslim votes by using BJP and Modi’s name. This would attract a considerable, though not majority, of Muslim and anti-Modi votes towards AAP and would divide an already fractured Muslim vote that cannot decide whether to vote for Cong, SP or BSP.
This would greatly fracture the anti-Modi, anti-BJP and Muslim votes in the state and would actually increase BJP’s chances of winning.

Arvind Kejriwal’s move against Modi may actually help Modi and BJP to win seats where Muslim Votes may spoil BJP’s chances.

The political equations are rapidly changing in Uttar Pradesh and the politics of the state is becoming increasingly interesting, and how AAP affects the fortunes of other parties in UP would be challenge for Pollsters.