Tag Archives: UP

UPA-2 Govt didn’t fell on May 16 2014, it fell on August 16 2011

Everyone predicted a rout for the Congress, but no one predicted the extent of the rout. A below 100 tally was on cards, but a tally below 50 was completely unexpected. Congress didn’t even won a single seat in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Himachal Pradesh, Uttrakhand, Jammu and Kashmir, Jharkhand, Tamil Nadu, Odhissa, Delhi and Goa. In Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, it won just 2 seats and just one in Chhattisgarh. Its highest seats came from Karnataka and Kerala, which too were in single figures. Not just the Congress, all parties that showed inclination towards the Congress fell hard. The NCP won just 4 seats in Maharashtra and two elsewhere, Left parties were reduced to minor players in Bengal and Kerala, DMK failed to win a single seat, YSR Cong did worst than many anticipated, RJD won just four seats and JDU just 2, BSP and NC drew a blank where as SP won just 5 seats. Every party that showed inclination towards Congress failed to win the trust of the electorate. Where as, parties which showed inclination to support a BJP led NDA won big. AIADMK won 37 seats in Tamil Nadi, BJD won 20 seats in Odhissa and TMC won 34 seats in West Bengal. This showes that people were not only disillusioned by the Congress, but all Congress minded parties that did the politics of Secularism-Communalism

The foundation of such anger was laid by the Anna Hazare led anti-corruption movement in 2011. Scams after scams were coming in the public domain and the government was in denial mode. The opposition was weak and Congress took the scams lightly. But the people didn’t. The Anna Hazzare movement gave people a platform to express their anger. People took leave from their jobs, sacrificed time which they would have spent with family, to protest against corruption. The Congress and other like minded parties took this for granted as the next election was more than three years away. What they didn’t understand was that this movement would be the foundation of their rout. The moment Congress arrested Anna Hazare, people decided to end the Congress government. Every hour Anna Hazare fasted, more and more people started changing their alligience. Every remark Congress made against the movement, opposed the people against the Congress. Congress thought corruption would have affect only the Urban population, but all its calculations were flawed. The base was created and Modi built his victory on this base. People had decided long ago to oust the Congress and Congress – minded parties long before the election was declared, only pressing the button on the E.V.M was left. And once this formality was done, the Congress and the Congress minded parties were swept away from the political landscape of India.


Arvind Kejriwal fighting against Narendra Modi would actually help Narendra Modi

Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) has already declared its Prime Ministerial Candidate – Narendra Modi’s candidature from Varanasi seat of Uttar Pradesh. This has created much buzz among the political class of Lucknow as well of New Delhi. BJP is traditionally powerful in Varanasi and with the political momentum, Narendra Modi has gained in UP, it will take a miracle to defeat Modi in Varanasi. Arvind Kejriwal seems to rise up to the task of challenging Modi in Varanasi, considered by many as a political suicide.

I believe Arvind Kejriwal’s posturing against Modi in Varanasi, will help BJP in UP and ultimately all over the country.

Arvind Kejriwal is attracting anti-traditional parties vote. BJP is fine with Kejriwal attracting Anti-BJP vote as it will spilt the anti-BJP vote among various parties, but the damage that Kejriwal is causing to BJP is the anti-congress electorate that is shifting towards him. This electorate is disillusioned with the Congress party and would have gone with the BJP in the absence of Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). The division of anti-congress vote harms the prospects of BJP.

But there is a different angle to the scenario that would unveil if Kejriwal fights against Modi.

If Kejriwal fights against Modi and is successfully able to position himself as Modi’s main challenger, he will attract the anti-Modi vote, mainly Muslim votes from UP. This will help BJP to strengthen its position in UP.

The Upper Castes (Brahmins, Kayasths, et cetera) are strongly consolidating around Modi, the Dalits and other Lower Castes, who traditionally support Mayawati’s BSP, are increasingly being attracted towards Modi due to his Lower Caste status. The middle class has always been a supporter of Modi. The Muzzafarnagar Riots have led the Jat community towards Modi. How Yadav voters will play, is still a mystery. Its only the Muslim voters that are still largely opposed to Modi.
Here Kejriwal comes into play. The Muslims in UP have a history of tactical voting. They support the candidate that has the highest possibility of defeating BJP. Muslims are disillusioned with SP due to the recent riots, with Congress, due to its 10 year dismal rule of the country and are considered to rally around the BSP. But Muslims know that Mayavati could ally with BJP after elections and cannot be trusted. Here a party named AAP comes, with its leader having relatively more credibility than the others, and is vocal about his anti-Modi thoughts and offering an actual future to Muslims, not the fear tactics that other parties adopt to gain Muslim votes by using BJP and Modi’s name. This would attract a considerable, though not majority, of Muslim and anti-Modi votes towards AAP and would divide an already fractured Muslim vote that cannot decide whether to vote for Cong, SP or BSP.
This would greatly fracture the anti-Modi, anti-BJP and Muslim votes in the state and would actually increase BJP’s chances of winning.

Arvind Kejriwal’s move against Modi may actually help Modi and BJP to win seats where Muslim Votes may spoil BJP’s chances.

The political equations are rapidly changing in Uttar Pradesh and the politics of the state is becoming increasingly interesting, and how AAP affects the fortunes of other parties in UP would be challenge for Pollsters.